India, Pakistan, and the Non-Proliferation Treaty
                   Positive Next Steps for the USA



                    Sherman Frankel April,1999



         In  recent  months  the  US  response to the Indians and
         Pakistanis testing their first nuclear weapons has  been
         the imposition of economic sanctions and a huge  outcry.
         These countries have violated a sancrosanct treaty,  the
         Non-Proliferation Treaty, which  came into existence  in
         1968, signed by the "have" powers, the Soviet Union, the
         USA and Great Britain.  Its declared purpose was  "their
         intention to achieve, at the earliest possible date  the
         cessation  of  the  nuclear  arms  race and to undertake
         effective   measures   in   the   direction  of  nuclear
         disarmament.    It  was  the  euphoric  era  when it was
         believed  that  peaceful  uses  of  nuclear  power would
         revolutionize the  energy problems  of the  planet.  So,
         over a  hundred countries,  none of  them possessing the
         desire,  technical  ability,  nuclear  know-how  or huge
         assets needed to make nuclear weapons, signed on to reap
         the benefits.  China and France signed the treaty,  only
         after they completed their own nuclear weapons programs.
         There is not  the slightest evidence  that the NPT  ever
         prevented a  country from  acquiring wepons  and even  a
         signatory, such  as Iraq,  proceeded with  a clandestine
         program, undetected until the Gulf War,

         Of course  non-proliferation did  take place.   This was
         accomplished by the USA guaranteeing its recent enemies,
         Germany and  Japan that  our nuclear  arms would protect
         then against f the Soviet  union and China.  And  it was
         also  accomplished  by  the  Soviet  Union  guaranteeing
         nations in its sphere, like East Germany and Hungary and
         Czechoslovakia, the same  protection.  Tactical  weapons
         were  introduced  into   most  of  these   countries  to
         accomplish this goal.

         Of  course  other  copunties,  like India, Pakistan, and
         Israel,  fearing  their  historical  enemies  started on
         clandestine  programs  to  build  nuclear  weapons   and
         refused to  sign the  treaty.   Israel, fearing  even an
         Iraq  that  had  signed  the  treaty,  took  the step of
         destroying the Iraqui reactor  at Tuaitha to the  outcry
         but secret joy of the west.

         Learning little from history,  the US failed to  do what
         it had done elsewhere, namely, convince the Indians  and
         Pakistanis that  they should  forego developing  nuclear
         weapons since  we and  the Soviet  Union would  be their
         "guarantors".    This  may  not  have  been  a  possible
         solution in the cold war  era but it has been  in recent
         years.

         However,  now  that  both  countries  have  weapons  and
         ballistic  missile  systems,  it  is  time  for  a   new
         approach:  Over  decades the USA  and the USSR  built up
         protective  systems  that   were  designed  to   prevent
         unauthorized or accidental use of their nuclear weapons.
         These  systems  are  called  "Permissive Action Links or
         PALs and  are composed  of a  combination of  procedures
         involving  cryptographically  secure  locks that prevent
         unauthorized use.  We and the Russians could provide the
         technolopgy and the  cost of PALs.   Since there  are so
         few weapons in the Indian and Pakistanian arsenals,  the
         cost would be negligible.

         Further  the  US  could   supply  them  with  DALs,   or
         Destructive  Action  Links.    The  reader may know that
         every launch of a test a new US missile and every launch
         of  a  satellite  has  a  range  safety officer at hand,
         finger  on  a  destruct  button,  ready  to  blow up the
         missile if  it veers  off course.   When  the Challenger
         exploded, a range safety office blew up the boosters  as
         they were  veering off-course.   Such  a remote destruct
         system could be supplied  to the Indians and  Pakistanis
         to  render  their  weapons  safe against unauthorized or
         accidental  launch.    Once  again,  the  cost  would be
         minimal, but the costs of one nuclear explosion would be
         immense.

         Rather  than  demand  that  these  countries  join   the
         Comprehensive Test  Ban Treaty  , which  is, after  all,
         just a treaty, helping  them to have safe  weapons could
         be a positive approach.  Perhaps it could lead to  their
         willingness to have the West help them achieve peace  in
         that part of Asia.